The Seven Percent Solution: The numbers in the Common Cause Partnership.
After all the hype about the new Reformation and the return to fundamentals, the Anglican Communion Network Moderator has ended up with a seven percent solution. OK, maybe 10%. It's hard to tell. It's a case for Sherlock Holmes. I give it seven percent.
The Moderator's latest remarks on the Common Cause Partnership and its numerical power tell us a good bit about his sense of the size of CCP. Moderator Robert Duncan in his London press conference said this:
“…we have worked together in a group called Common Cause Partnership. Right now that is eight jurisdictions, both US and Canadian. Those jurisdictions together represent 30 bishops, 800 clergy, 700 parishes, a worshipping community of about 100,000. That makes it larger than a third of the provinces of the Anglican Communion in that sheer number of people who worship on Sunday. We are committed to one another.”
The numbers tell us several things:
(i) The Moderator remarks that these numbers constitutes a community “larger than a third of the provinces of the Anglican Communion.” That includes the Province of the Southern Cone, temporary home to the Network Bishops who have left, along with some of their clergy and people. The Province of the Southern Cone claims about 25,000 people, although that number is soft and certainly is not the Average Sunday Attendance (ASA), or even the “people who worship on Sunday.”
(ii) “30 Bishops”: of which seven have been or are Episcopal Church bishops ( Schofield and Duncan, active when deposed; Cox, retired when deposed, Fairfield and Bena resigned from TEC; and perhaps Iker and Ackerman in the near future.) Only five have been diocesans. About 23% of CCP bishops are from TEC, the rest are from other jurisdictions. (More on the jurisdictions number later in the essay.) The 4 bishops from TEC who joined CCP prior to retirement represent about 3% of the whole TEC active bishops.
(iii) “800 Clergy”: It is unclear just how many of those are from TEC. Quite a few were previous members of TEC. Of the 800 clergy, let us suppose 600 of them were ordained in TEC. There are about 1700 TEC clergy, active and retired. It is hard to know just how many retired TEC clergy have become part of CCP. As near as I can guess, somewhere between 4 and 10 percent of TEC clergy active and retired have entered CCP ministries, with a midpoint of 7 percent.
(iv) “100,000 in the worshipping community”: The average number worshiping in TEC on Sunday stands at about 765,000. (The ASA) If the 100,000 represents more or less the ASA for the CCP, and using a rough percentage similar to TEC Clergy as part of CCP (3/4) the former TEC members constitutes about 75,000 persons, or roughly 9 percent.
(v) It appears that CCP numbers represent an outflow of something like 3% of bishops, 7% of clergy and 9% of Average Sunday Attendance from TEC. These estimates are fairly rough and take at face value the numbers offered by the Moderator. They also assume a fairly generous percentage of clergy and people from TEC in the CCP numbers.
(vi) The “raw” data of CCP gives a high end read: 30 Bishops makes a house of active bishops that is about 20 % the size of the active bishops of TEC. 800 clergy constitutes a clerical “house” roughly 17 % the size of TEC’s active non-retired clergy. 100,000 worshipers constitutes about 13% the ASA numbers for TEC.
In a previous essay I suggested that when it all shook out about 10% of the Episcopal Church would be caught up in the new improved Anglican effort here in North America. The Moderator’s numbers support that and more. My sense is the Network and the CCP effort to build a base from people within TEC will yield 10% ias a high side estimate. That's what I thought in my earlier essay, but I believe I was wrong. I'd say it is more like a seven percent solution.
A note on the jurisdictions part of the CCP: It might seem that when referencing jurisdictions the Moderator, is referring to the eight members of the Common Cause Partnership. But the realities of the CCP are a bit more complex. Of the organizations that are part of the CCP, only some are “jurisdictions” in the sense that they designate organized congregations in a diocese or dioceses in a larger synod.
1. The Reformed Episcopal Church
2. The Anglican Mission in North America, of which the Anglican Coalition in Canada is a part, all under the jurisdiction of the Province of Rwanda.
3. The Anglican Network in Canada, related to the Province of the Southern Cone.
4. The Convocation of Anglicans in North America, under the jurisdiction of the Church of Nigeria (Anglican). That is, four jurisdictions, of which only one is a separate church unattached to an existing Anglican Province.(REC)
Then we have the peculiar situation of the groups that belong to The Federation of Anglicans in the Americas. The Federation of Anglicans in the Americas is a federation of autonomous churches, but they have together been in conversation with the Common Cause Partnership. So there are then four more jurisdictions. (I have numbered only those who are not already listed above.
5. The Anglican Church in America (ACA)
The Anglican Mission in America (AMIA)
6. The Anglican Province of America (APA)
7. The Diocese of the Holy Cross (HDC)
8. Episcopal Missionary Church (EMC)
The Reformed Episcopal Church (REC)
The other members of the Common Cause Partnership Forward in Faith The American Anglican Council The Anglican Communion Network are not jurisdictions, although it can be argued that now that at least two diocesan members of the Network have proclaimed they are no longer members the Episcopal Church, there are two diocesan jurisdictions, The Anglican Diocese of San Joaquin and the separated Diocese of Pittsburgh, Inc, that might count, but they are now part of another jurisdiction, the Province of the Southern Cone, not part of the Common Cause Partnership, but obviously closely partnered with it. Like CANA and AMiA they constitute the core of yet another incursion group.
For the moment I am inclined to include them as a separate group,
9. The North American Dioceses of the Province of the Southern Cone: NADPSC, namely San Joaquin and Pittsburgh. (This being different than the Anglican Network in Canada, which involves parishes, not dioceses.) So, as a stretch, there are nine jurisdictions involved, only five (six if you count the ACN because of NADPSC) , actually being named as member organizations of the CCP.