On January 2, 2008 I made some rash predictions for the year 2008. See my post HERE. Revisiting them, here is how I judge my predictive abilities. I was right about 70% of the time, which, given the chaos in Anglican-Land is not too shabby. Still, better next year.
Here is how I graded my answers:
The Lambeth Conference will take place as planned in July 2008. All but about 100 bishops will take part.
Yes and No. It took place, over 230 bishops did not attend. 50%
The Global Anglican Future Conference (GAFCON) will take place in June, but not in Jerusalem.
Yes and No. It took place, but in Jerusalem, in spite of the wishes of the diocese that it not take place there. 50%
Blessing same sex relationships and ordination of gay and lesbian persons will make it into the formal conversations at Lambeth under the heading of homosexuality or human sexuality. Lesbian and gay members of the church will not be invited to speak to the assembled bishops.
Of course the matter was discussed, and of course lesbian and gay members of the church were not invited to speak. I missed on the “formal conversations.” 85%
Bishop Gene Robinson will be at Lambeth whether or not he is physically present inside the walls. Not to invite him in is absurd.
Got it right, sadly. 100%
Perhaps ten percent of the members of the Episcopal Church will find their way out of TEC and into a variety of other church contexts.
About right, perhaps more like 5-7%. 80%
Most of the lawsuits will go in favor of the Episcopal Church as a hierarchical church and the properties will remain part of Episcopal Church dioceses.
It appears that is true, but not sure yet. 75%
No matter which way the suits go, the body of believers that get left outside the building will find delight in beginning again and those inside will feel free of old nagging fights. It will be well finally for all their souls. We might all actually learn something from fresh starts and renewed communities (or is that only a hope?)
True. Examples in remaining dioceses as well as in fresh starts by those who have left. 100%
Several bishops will be removed from the roll of the House of Bishops by deposition without their consent having declared that they are no longer under the authority of the Episcopal Church and its canons. Two will retire early, ask to be relieved of their inclusion in the House of Bishops (a la Bishop Steenson.) They will then declare they are part of some other Anglican agency (a la Bishop Bena) or going to Rome, or just bowing out.
Partially true. SchofieldDuncan and Iker out, Ackerman retired but still in TEC, say 75%
The Network will be reduced in number as it formally meshes more and more with the Common Cause Partnership group. The Common Cause Partnership will move toward being an ecclesiastical structure in which women are not ordained and gay people not welcomed to exercise ordained ministry or to vocations of holy union. It too will be a smaller group than now.
True in both cases. ACN reduced to 7, now being absorbed by CCP. CCP more or less as it was, but with some FiFNA and AAC members still part of TEC, APA withdrew from CCP in January. 100%
The Archbishop of Canterbury will stop believing that the "Windsor bishops" constitute a force for moderation. He will be right.
Sadly, wrong. 0%
The Archbishop of Canterbury will not stop believing that the Windsor Report is an item in the Anglican portfolio that has continuing merit. He will be wrong.
Sadly, right 100%
The icon of solidarity in the Anglican Communion (Canterbury focus) will be the Anglican Covenant, at least during the tenure of the incumbent Archbishop of Canterbury.
The icon of solidarity in the Anglican Communion (African bible-belt focus) will be the Bible.
Of course, 100%
The icon of solidarity in the New Improved Anglican Communion, made up of Anglican Communion Bible Belt Focused Provinces and a range of North and South American dissenter Anglicans, will be the faith once delivered to the Saints."
Of course, 100%
Progressives will try to live without icons but will be tempted to think of justice as an icon. They will have to work at overcoming this temptation. Justice is not an icon, it is an anvil on which the pretenses of our prejudices disguised as morality are finally annealed.
I’d say about 80% right. Progressives still able to rise to the temptation of thinking of justice as something we own the rights to.
The following possibilities were also considered:
…There will be further work on a theology of Grace in creation that will contribute to an understanding of full participation of all baptized persons in all vocations to holy living for the healing of the world, a Gospel agenda.
Not yet but beginning work. 25%
The best minds and hearts in both the dissenter and progressive Anglican communities will find new levels of communion, probably over coffee. A little child will lead them.
The agendas and even the methods of those who see the issues as a division into church parties will pass (at least in part) from the scene and those who see a full rainbow of opinions as a gift to the church will bring new agendas, formed in an age that does not trust meta-narratives but continues to live in the faith.
Emerging Church stuff, 75%
Those who can't stand the heat of this particular kitchen, who find Anglican-land's untidy ways intolerable, will move on.
Of course, a give away 100%
Then there is the realm of rumor. I've picked these up 'round and about. They have very little traction. Answers here will have only half value, since these are predictions based on rumors.
The Archbishop of Canterbury will retire following the Lambeth Conference.
The Roman Catholic Church will make special provisions for an Anglican rite community and effectively reduce the Anglican dissenter community to protestant neo-fundamentalists.
The Global South Anglican group will recapture its initial vision as a gathering of Anglicans from countries whose political, economic and social systems are in serious flux and development, a gathering for the purpose of mutual mission strategy. Brazil will be invited back in.
The Archbishop of Nigeria will be disinvited from Lambeth before he says he will not come.
No, 0%, much to the Archbishop of Canterbury’s shame.
And, on a more personal note:
Lily Anne (beloved Granddaughter) will lead the next generation of artists in the Harris family. I'm sure of it.
Absolutely 100%. That’s my story and I’m sticking to it!
Stay tuned for next year's predictions!